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Payback Period Visuals's avatar

Great list TJ. Curious where UNH lands in your PEG + yield + reverse DDM framework this month. From my quantitative work, UNH screens as one of the most compelling dividend growth names available right now:

- PEG ratio: 0.56 (well below your typical buy threshold)

- Current yield elevated vs 5-year average due to price compression

- 15 consecutive years of dividend raises through every crisis

I ran 10,000 Monte Carlo DCF sims and the results are striking: median IV of $546 vs ~$360 current price. That is a 34% margin of safety on a company with 91.3% moat probability (ROIC consistently above WACC).

The healthcare sector is at its lowest S&P 500 weighting since 1994, which feels like exactly the kind of contrarian signal your methodology is designed to capture. Buffett adding a position only reinforces the thesis.

Full quantitative deep dive: https://paybackperiod.substack.com/p/unitedhealth-unh-advanced-quantitative

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