A useful discussion on the inflow side of the equation. How much are retirees pulling from the system each year, how is that expected to grow as boomers age?
The 401(k) history was new to me. Wild that a tax loophole from 1978 basically turned the S&P 500 into the national pension. The top 10 being 40% of the index feels a lot less abstract when it's coming out of everyone's paycheck every two weeks.
Great series of articles. The big question is when will this capital cycle turn and how abrupt will it be. For example, will it be in 1 year and drop off a cliff or will it be 5 years and gradually reach an orderly steady state. This leaves us with two things to do: 1) find the early warning signs of a cycle shift. 2) allocate at least 2/3 of holding to non-tech quality businesses like WM, ITW, PG, PM, KMB, O, MA, WAT, BDX and 1/10 to cash . Even if it means you might not beat the S&P this year. Yep, trying to beat the S&P is a risky organizing principle.
$45 Trillion in Retirement Assets. That means the government has a Receivable on its Balance Sheet worth $13.5 Trillion. Good to keep in mind when losing sleep over the Federal Debt.
A useful discussion on the inflow side of the equation. How much are retirees pulling from the system each year, how is that expected to grow as boomers age?
The 401(k) history was new to me. Wild that a tax loophole from 1978 basically turned the S&P 500 into the national pension. The top 10 being 40% of the index feels a lot less abstract when it's coming out of everyone's paycheck every two weeks.
Great series of articles. The big question is when will this capital cycle turn and how abrupt will it be. For example, will it be in 1 year and drop off a cliff or will it be 5 years and gradually reach an orderly steady state. This leaves us with two things to do: 1) find the early warning signs of a cycle shift. 2) allocate at least 2/3 of holding to non-tech quality businesses like WM, ITW, PG, PM, KMB, O, MA, WAT, BDX and 1/10 to cash . Even if it means you might not beat the S&P this year. Yep, trying to beat the S&P is a risky organizing principle.
$45 Trillion in Retirement Assets. That means the government has a Receivable on its Balance Sheet worth $13.5 Trillion. Good to keep in mind when losing sleep over the Federal Debt.